Bold Statements

"Outta my way. I'M the #1 RB around here!"

A quick glance at this vast network of information and misinformation that we call the internet will reveal countless sites dedicated to the game of fantasy football that we all love.

No matter what format you play in or what the stakes are, there are people out there just begging for you to read their genius predictions for the upcoming NFL season. Some are paid to do such writing and other schmucks, such as yours truly, do so for the joy of the game.

However, whether moonlighting as experts or getting paid to act the part, we all have one thing in common: we’re trying to predict the near-unpredictable.

We may be using stats and/or cold hard facts (ie, “He’s in a contract year” OR “His attempts per game increased tremendously over the last 6 games” OR “The improved O-line will give <blank> more time to throw to <blank>”), complicated metrics, or just following a hunch.  Some of us stick very close to the status quo and some of us make batshit crazy statements (ie, Jabar Gaffney will be a low #1 Fantasy WR).

The common denominator is that, unless they are Marty McFly and  have a Sports Almanac from the future, these “experts” are making PREDICTIONS and predictions are, more often than not, usually incorrect.  If you are above .500 in the “correct” column of your predictions, then you’re a fantastic Fantasy Nostradamus.

With that long-ass disclaimer out of the way, here are some of my FFG “Likes/Dislikes” (done in my best Matthew Berry impression minus the annoying dating anecdotes and depressing life stories):

Predictions:

Jeremy Maclin/DeSean Jackson-According to Fantasy Football Calculator, in 12-team leagues J-Mac’s ADP is 71st and 72nd in PPR and standard scoring respectively.  DeSean Jackson is going way earlier, and I predict this year,  Maclin will do as well as DeSean Jackson in standard leagues and in PPR may even do BETTER than DJax.

Anquan Boldin/Reggie Wayne-I’m fairly Wacko for Flacco. I think he has a HUGE season and the Flacco/Boldin connection will be solid.  Conversely I think with a crowded backfield in Indy, that Wayne loses some ground and isn’t as dominant as he once was.  Prediction: Boldin and Wayne have comparable numbers.   Pass on Wayne when he goes in the 2nd (in favor of someone else like Brandon Marshall, Miles Austin, or Roddy White) and make sure you draft Boldin in the 3rd, 4th, or 5th rounds.

Larry Fitzgerald-Matt Leinart (still) looks like poo. Fitz may have better luck with Derek Anderson who has looked better thi preseason, but either way I predict Fitz will finish OUTSIDE the top 10 WR’s this year. If you want to take a shot on him as your #2 WR, I like him there, but chances are you will watch someone else take him as their #1 and you should let that guy have Fitzy.

Arian Foster-Foster played amazingly well late last season.  Ben Tate is out for the season.  Slaton will vulture some carries, but will primarily be a change of pace, receiving back.  Houston is a high-powered offense with the Schaub/A.J. connection. I predict Foster will end the year with over a 1,000 yards and in the top 15 of RB’s.  He is currently being drafted in the 5th or 6th rounds of drafts.  Make sure you get him there.

Matt Ryan-Everyone predicted that Ryan would explode in his 2nd season and, as we all know, he was pretty disappointing.  However, let’s remember Turner and Ryan were injured and there were problems on offense.  Chalk it up to a sophomore slump.  With everyone healthy and a great schedule, THIS is the year to own Ryan.  Prediction: Matty posts better numbers than Rivers, Favre, Cutler, Palmer, McNabb, and Kolb. We’re talking top 7 QB here, folks, and you can get him in rounds 6-8.

Jahvid Best/Nate Burleson-The lions are going to be A LOT better this year.  The further maturation of the Stafford/Calvin Johnson connection  plus the additions of Ndamukong Suh, Jahvid Best, and Nate Burleson will seriously help this evolving team. I’m not saying they’ll be a playoff contender, but they’re going to triple their wins from last season (not hard to do).  More important to you, they will be a huge FF factor.  We all know Cal Johnson is a beast, so no prediction there. What I DO predict is that Best (barring injury) will put up comparable fantasy numbers to Ryan Matthews who is being drafted  early in the 2nd round of drafts. What’s more, Nate Burleson will have his career reinvigorated by the fact that C.J. will be double-teamed all the time.  Burley will be a #2  fantasy starter before 2010 is over and he’s currently being drafted in rounds 10-13!  Just saying.

Mike Williams-I am definitely drinking the M.Williams’ Kool-aid.  In my keeper league, I drafted Benn, but I traded for Williams and am thrilled that I did.  MW is wowing experts everywhere and Josh Freeman looks like he will be a decent QB. I know he’s a rookie WR, so you have to seriously temper your expectations, BUT if Freeman’s thumb injury doesn’t hamper their connection, I predict Williams will have the best numbers of ANY other rookie WR including Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Golden Tate, and Brandon LaFell.

I have some more predictions coming along with another article, but I’ll let you chew on those for now.


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3 Responses to “Bold Statements”

  1. A C Slater says:

    I agree about Maclin he will be a better player then Desean Jackson this year. And you are also right about Reggie Wayne too he sucks.

  2. The Fantasy Flukie says:

    Like the piece… I also agree w. Matt Ryan having huge upside. I also agree w. the Boldin/Wayne statement

  3. Scott J Pachman says:

    Hey, Flukie. Isn’t Atlanta a running team? I thought you didn’t like QBs and WRs on running teams. How many years before Tony Gonzalez retires leaving Ryan with 1 target to throw to.

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