Buy Low, Sell High – The Fantasy Mantra

Buy Low, Sell High
 
As discussed in the previous blog, a key to success in fantasy football is shrewd trading.  While any dolt can “buy low,” only fantasy football gurus can be successful “selling high.”  The difference between a player having a career year or being a one season wonder isn’t always easy to spot.
 
Today I witnessed the biggest blockbuster in the history of my keeper league.  Mother Scratchers  received Andre Johnson ($31), Laurence Maroney ($1), Philip Rivers ($17), Visanthe Shiancoe ($2), and Ricky Williams ($2) from the Land Sharks for Reggie Wayne ($26), Chris Chambers ($1), Tony Romo ($13), and Jason Witten ($14).
 
Let’s break it down: 
 
For the first part of the trade you have to trim the fat to see what you really have.  So for the sake of getting to the meat of the trade, let’s throw out Maroney and Chambers, two bozos who will have little to no value in 2010.   So Garbage = Garbage.  It’s a push.
 
For the second part of the trade you have AJ/Rivers vs. Wayne/Romo.  AJ and Rivers equal $48.  Wayne and Romo equal $39.  AJ is hands down the best WR in football but Wayne isn’t that far off.  And five dollars cheaper, Wayne could be held on for another season where AJ most likely cannot.  Romo and Rivers should have comparable numbers but Tony’s ceiling is higher.  Because Romo is cheap enough, he could be held onto a few more years.  AJ and Rivers could put up slightly better numbers, but in our keeper league, with salary cap restraints, the duo of Romo and Wayne get the edge.  At worst, it’s another push.
 
For the third part, we get to the crux of the trade.  Land Sharks took the gamble and sold high on Shiancoe and Williams.  Both players look great for a buck, but coming off of career years, I doubt their numbers will be replicated.  As for Witten, his numbers wereimpressive but he only managed to snag two touchdowns.  I believe that stat will skyrocket in 2010.  I’m not sure if I would call Witten a “buy low” especially at $14, but he is the skill set to be a Top 5 tight end and as such might be worth overpaying for.  In the end Witten > Shiancoe and Williams.
 
Let’s add up the score:  Round 1 – Push.  Round 2 – Push.  Round 3 – Edge Land Sharks.  So in the end I have to give a slight nod to the Land Sharks over the Mother Scratchers.
 
Agree?  Disagree?  Be seen on the message boards and let us know what you think of this monster of a deal.


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2 Responses to “Buy Low, Sell High – The Fantasy Mantra”

  1. Zach says:

    Yo Scotty…. u are a touch offbase. Good article I agree w. ur previous post of going allllll out – balls to the wall – but as for this trade I SEE IT AS PRETTY CLOSE TO EVEN – and i give the edge to the mojo who got Andre Johnson – his upside is greater then ANY player in the deal – oh and btw I appreciate the fact some mojo is writing bout fantasy football in JUNE……weill it’s almost june

  2. Scott says:

    Hey Zach. Don’t get me wrong, I love AJ, but I predict a big year for the Cowboys and the QB/TE combo of Romo and Witten should rack up some big time points.

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